Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2014

The area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
Mexico has continued to become better organized this evening with
convection consolidating near the low-level center along with
increased banding features.  Since earlier scatterometer data
indicated that the center had become well defined, the low now meets
the criteria for a tropical depression.  The initial intensity is
set to 30 kt in agreement with the latest satellite estimate from
TAFB.

The depression is likely to travel over warm waters for the next
several days with light-to-moderate northeasterly shear.  There are
no obvious factors that would preclude intensification, so steady
strengthening is shown in the official NHC forecast. This prediction
is above the model consensus, but is not nearly as robust as the
SHIPS model which makes the depression a hurricane in a couple of
days.  It is worth noting that this is a fairly conservative
intensity forecast, especially if the more favorable upper-level
environment predicted by the GFS model verifies.

The cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest or 285/14.  A
subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to build
westward during the next couple of days, which should cause the
depression to turn toward the west.  Model guidance is generally in
good agreement through that time and the NHC forecast is close to
the model consensus.  Thereafter, the forecast is complicated by a
possible disturbance within the ITCZ to the southeast of the cyclone
and a potential break in the ridge along 130W.  While the former
feature would help bend the track of the tropical cyclone more
toward the southwest, the break in the ridge could cause a more
poleward track.  The ITCZ disturbance interaction seems like the
less dominant feature at this time, so the official forecast is
a little northwest of the model consensus at long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 16.5N 108.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 16.8N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 16.8N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 16.7N 115.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 16.7N 117.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 17.0N 121.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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