ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2014 The area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Mexico has continued to become better organized this evening with convection consolidating near the low-level center along with increased banding features. Since earlier scatterometer data indicated that the center had become well defined, the low now meets the criteria for a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt in agreement with the latest satellite estimate from TAFB. The depression is likely to travel over warm waters for the next several days with light-to-moderate northeasterly shear. There are no obvious factors that would preclude intensification, so steady strengthening is shown in the official NHC forecast. This prediction is above the model consensus, but is not nearly as robust as the SHIPS model which makes the depression a hurricane in a couple of days. It is worth noting that this is a fairly conservative intensity forecast, especially if the more favorable upper-level environment predicted by the GFS model verifies. The cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest or 285/14. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to build westward during the next couple of days, which should cause the depression to turn toward the west. Model guidance is generally in good agreement through that time and the NHC forecast is close to the model consensus. Thereafter, the forecast is complicated by a possible disturbance within the ITCZ to the southeast of the cyclone and a potential break in the ridge along 130W. While the former feature would help bend the track of the tropical cyclone more toward the southwest, the break in the ridge could cause a more poleward track. The ITCZ disturbance interaction seems like the less dominant feature at this time, so the official forecast is a little northwest of the model consensus at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 16.5N 108.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 16.8N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 16.8N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 16.7N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 16.7N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 17.0N 121.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:40 UTC