Hurricane HENRIETTE

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HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
800 AM PDT THU AUG 08 2013
 
SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...HENRIETTE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING.
ENHANCE IR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE EMBEDDED IN A SMALL CDO WITH CLOUD
TOPS COLDER THAN -50 DEG C.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 77 KT TO 90 KT AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 85 KT.  SINCE THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MARGINAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING.  THIS
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL
PREDICTION AND NOT FAR FROM THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
CENTER FIXES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE MOTION IS NOW WESTWARD
OR 280 AT 9 KT.  A NARROW MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF HENRIETTE IN A DAY
OR TWO.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION TO TURN A LITTLE SOUTH OF
WEST WITH AN INCREASE OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
ALSO SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HENRIETTE SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN 
12 TO 18 HOURS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 17.2N 138.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 17.3N 139.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 17.0N 141.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 16.5N 143.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 16.0N 146.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 15.0N 152.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 14.0N 158.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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