Tropical Depression GIL

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013

GIL IS MAINTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS...FOR NOW.  A SMALL BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS AND A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB.  THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THAT
TIME FRAME.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REINTENSIFICATION SO THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT GIL COULD MAKE A COMEBACK IN SEVERAL DAYS. 
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS SMALL SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT
THAT LONG.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND
LIES BETWEEN THE HWRF AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION...255/7...CONTINUES.  A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF GIL...OR ITS REMNANT
LOW...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE
THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS NOT
FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE
ECMWF MODEL PREDICTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 14.0N 137.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 13.6N 138.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 13.0N 139.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1200Z 12.6N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0000Z 12.4N 143.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0000Z 12.5N 146.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0000Z 12.5N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/0000Z 12.5N 153.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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