ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013 GIL IS MAINTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS...FOR NOW. A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS AND A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THAT TIME FRAME. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REINTENSIFICATION SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT GIL COULD MAKE A COMEBACK IN SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS SMALL SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT THAT LONG. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND LIES BETWEEN THE HWRF AND LGEM GUIDANCE. LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...255/7...CONTINUES. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF GIL...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE ECMWF MODEL PREDICTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 14.0N 137.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 13.6N 138.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 13.0N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z 12.6N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 12.4N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z 12.5N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0000Z 12.5N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0000Z 12.5N 153.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:24 UTC