Tropical Storm COSME
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TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
800 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER-CORE BANDING STRUCTURE OF
COSME HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
A BANDING FEATURE NOW WRAPS ABOUT 75 PERCENT AROUND THE CENTER.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS SUPPORT INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 55 KT.
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES OVER MUCH COLDER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. COSME IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
96 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
DSHP AND LGEM MODELS...BUT LEANS CLOSER TO THE WEAKER LGEM FORECAST
AFTER 48 HOURS.
NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. COSME
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...305/12...ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS...COSME SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND
REMAIN ON THAT HEADING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE
LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS OF COSME ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD...FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 15.9N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 16.7N 109.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 17.4N 112.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 18.7N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 20.5N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH
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