ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER-CORE BANDING STRUCTURE OF COSME HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND A BANDING FEATURE NOW WRAPS ABOUT 75 PERCENT AROUND THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS SUPPORT INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 55 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES OVER MUCH COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. COSME IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DSHP AND LGEM MODELS...BUT LEANS CLOSER TO THE WEAKER LGEM FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...305/12...ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS DURING NEXT 24 HOURS...COSME SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND REMAIN ON THAT HEADING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS OF COSME ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD...FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.9N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 16.7N 109.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 17.4N 112.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 18.7N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z 20.5N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:16 UTC