Hurricane DANIEL
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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAD BEEN DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...
ALTHOUGH RECENTLY CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE EYEWALL HAVE COOLED. THE EYE
IS STILL APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND IS CLOUD FILLED ON THE
VISIBLE IMAGES. THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 90 KT IN
ACCORDANCE WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
ALTHOUGH DANIEL SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVES OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS AND THROUGH A STABLE AIR
MASS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM PREDICTION
AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
DANIEL CONTINUES ITS PERSISTENT WESTWARD TREK AND THE CURRENT MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 275/12. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY STEERING
CURRENT FOR THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONES AND
LIES BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 15.2N 125.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 15.3N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 15.6N 129.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 15.7N 132.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 15.8N 136.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 15.9N 142.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 16.0N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 16.0N 153.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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