ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012 CENTRAL CONVECTION HAD BEEN DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY... ALTHOUGH RECENTLY CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE EYEWALL HAVE COOLED. THE EYE IS STILL APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND IS CLOUD FILLED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGES. THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 90 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. ALTHOUGH DANIEL SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS AND THROUGH A STABLE AIR MASS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM PREDICTION AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. DANIEL CONTINUES ITS PERSISTENT WESTWARD TREK AND THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/12. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT FOR THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONES AND LIES BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 15.2N 125.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 15.3N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 15.6N 129.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 15.7N 132.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 15.8N 136.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 15.9N 142.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 16.0N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 16.0N 153.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:15 UTC