Tropical Storm PATTY
ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2012
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 3 8 16 24 35 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 14 25 38 41 41 39 NA
TROPICAL STORM 84 69 51 40 32 26 NA
HURRICANE 1 4 4 4 3 1 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 4 4 3 3 1 NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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