ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012 0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2012 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 3 8 16 24 35 NA TROP DEPRESSION 14 25 38 41 41 39 NA TROPICAL STORM 84 69 51 40 32 26 NA HURRICANE 1 4 4 4 3 1 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 4 4 3 3 1 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 40KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:50 UTC