Hurricane DARBY

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HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010
200 AM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010
 
DARBY IS AN INCREDIBLY SMALL HURRICANE.  AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0345
UTC INDICATED THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DO NOT EXTEND ANY
FARTHER THAN ABOUT 35 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  THE HURRICANE HAD BEEN
MAINTAINING A SMALL 10-N MI WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH SUPPORTED 0600 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5 FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS RECENTLY BECOME
OBSCURED...AND THE MOST RECENT ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS T5.1.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 95 KT.  VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER DARBY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE RAPID FROM 72-120 HOURS AS A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER MEXICO...CREATING FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...AND IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
DARBY HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/5.  THE STEERING CURRENTS
AROUND THE HURRICANE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AND DARBY SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF NEWLY-NAMED TROPICAL
STORM ALEX IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INDICATES A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BETWEEN DAYS 3 AND 5...BUT IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS STILL RATHER
DIVERGENT AND DARBY COULD DRIFT OR MEANDER IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A QUICK NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND BRINGS
DARBY TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN 3 DAYS...BUT THIS SOLUTION IS
DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 13.5N 102.7W    95 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 13.4N 103.4W    90 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 13.4N 104.1W    85 KT
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 13.6N 104.4W    75 KT
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 13.9N 104.1W    70 KT
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 14.3N 103.3W    55 KT
 96HR VT     30/0600Z 14.7N 102.8W    45 KT
120HR VT     01/0600Z 15.0N 102.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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