Tropical Storm CELIA

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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010

CELIA HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK THIS MORNING WITH A NEW BAND OF
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. HOWEVER SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 45 KT. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS OVER SUB 25C
WATERS AND EMBEDDED IN A STABLE AIRMASS...A GRADUAL SPINDOWN IS
LIKELY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND AGREES WITH THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. 

THE BEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/3...THOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN WITH FEW MICROWAVE IMAGES OVERNIGHT.  CELIA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME STATIONARY BY THIS EVENING AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN AN AREA
OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.  THEREAFTER...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL SPREAD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS SOME MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS/ECMWF/GFDL...NOW MOVE THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AS
CELIA FEELS THE EFFECTS OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER MEXICO.  
WHILE THE EASTWARD TRACK DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AT THIS TIME...THE
NHC FORECAST WILL NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
INSTEAD OF MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE IT
DISSIPATES.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/1500Z 15.9N 123.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     28/0000Z 15.9N 124.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     28/1200Z 15.9N 124.4W    30 KT
 36HR VT     29/0000Z 15.9N 124.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     29/1200Z 15.9N 124.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     30/1200Z 15.8N 124.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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