ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042010 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010 CELIA HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK THIS MORNING WITH A NEW BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. HOWEVER SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 45 KT. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS OVER SUB 25C WATERS AND EMBEDDED IN A STABLE AIRMASS...A GRADUAL SPINDOWN IS LIKELY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND AGREES WITH THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE BEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/3...THOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WITH FEW MICROWAVE IMAGES OVERNIGHT. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY BY THIS EVENING AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS SOME MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS/ECMWF/GFDL...NOW MOVE THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AS CELIA FEELS THE EFFECTS OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER MEXICO. WHILE THE EASTWARD TRACK DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AT THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST WILL NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY INSTEAD OF MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.9N 123.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.9N 124.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 15.9N 124.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 15.9N 124.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 29/1200Z 15.9N 124.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 30/1200Z 15.8N 124.7W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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