Tropical Storm JULIA

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TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
500 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010
 
SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTEDLY...THE ASCAT PASS AT 0106Z OVER JULIA SHOWED 50
TO 55 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WAS
AT LEAST 55 KT AROUND 0000Z GIVEN THE LOW BIAS OF THAT INSTRUMENT.
SINCE THEN...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE CDO HAS BECOME
FRAGMENTED.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.0...OR 45 KT...FROM
TAFB AND 2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM SAB.  THE INTENSITY WAS SET AT
50 KT AT THE SYNOPTIC TIME AND IS 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE MOTION OF JULIA IS 355 DEGREES AT 14 KT...WHICH IS FAIRLY WELL
KNOWN DUE TO AN 0506Z AQUA PASS THAT WAS JUST RECEIVED. THE CYCLONE
IS IN THE PROCESS OF RECURVING AROUND THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. A MODEST DECELERATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS JULIA TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE TRACK
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE FAIRLY
CLUSTERED MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE MODEST REINTENSIFICATION OF JULIA IS NOT LIKELY TO BE REPEATED. 
THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS IN ABOUT A DAY WHILE
BEING BLUDGEONED BY ABOUT 50 KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC NORTHWESTERLIES. 
GRADUAL DECAY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AFTER WHICH
JULIA SHOULD BE ABSORBED INTO THE VERY LARGE CIRCULATION OF IGOR. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH APPEARS TO
HOLD ON TO A ROBUST CYCLONE FOR TOO LONG.
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS ALLOWED FOR AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE WIND
RADII UTILIZED IN THIS ADVISORY.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 33.6N  51.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 35.7N  51.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 36.8N  49.4W    30 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 37.7N  47.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 39.5N  45.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN
 
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