Tropical Storm MARIE
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TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008
MARIE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF ITS CIRCULATION. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT ALTHOUGH T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED
SINCE THIS MORNING. A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER MARIE ALSO SUPPORTED AN
INTENSITY OF 35 KT...AND THIS IS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED USED FOR THE
CURRENT ADVISORY. MARIE IS NOT FORECAST TO TRAVERSE COOLER WATERS
BUT SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR
MASS...AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LIKELY PROMOTE CONTINUED GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN
INTO A DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND MARIE SHOULD BE REDUCED TO REMNANT
LOW STATUS IN 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN BY THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY FORECAST
CONSENSUS...ICON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES YIELD A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST
DRIFT...160/3. AS MARIE WEAKENS FURTHER AND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION DECOUPLES FROM THE MID-LEVELS...THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS ALONG 25N-30N WEST OF 120W WILL
PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO PROVIDE MUCH WESTWARD STEERING. INSTEAD...
MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT MARIE OR ITS LOW-LEVEL REMNANT
BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD IN THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF
NORBERT. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY
HINTS AT SUCH A TRACK BY TURNING THE CYCLONE A LITTLE MORE TO THE
LEFT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME...
THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF MARIE LEFT TO DEAL WITH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 18.8N 122.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 18.7N 123.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 18.5N 124.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 18.3N 125.0W 25 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 17.9N 126.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 08/1800Z 17.5N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/1800Z 17.0N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER PASCH
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