ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142008 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008 MARIE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF ITS CIRCULATION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT ALTHOUGH T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING. A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER MARIE ALSO SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT...AND THIS IS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY. MARIE IS NOT FORECAST TO TRAVERSE COOLER WATERS BUT SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS...AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LIKELY PROMOTE CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND MARIE SHOULD BE REDUCED TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN BY THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY FORECAST CONSENSUS...ICON. VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES YIELD A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST DRIFT...160/3. AS MARIE WEAKENS FURTHER AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DECOUPLES FROM THE MID-LEVELS...THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS ALONG 25N-30N WEST OF 120W WILL PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO PROVIDE MUCH WESTWARD STEERING. INSTEAD... MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT MARIE OR ITS LOW-LEVEL REMNANT BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD IN THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF NORBERT. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY HINTS AT SUCH A TRACK BY TURNING THE CYCLONE A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME... THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF MARIE LEFT TO DEAL WITH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 18.8N 122.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 18.7N 123.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 18.5N 124.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 18.3N 125.0W 25 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 17.9N 126.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/1800Z 17.5N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/1800Z 17.0N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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