Tropical Depression ISELLE
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102008
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008
ISELLE IS PRODUCING INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION...JUST ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WITH STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR FORECAST TO CONTINUE...ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT ISELLE HAS
MADE AN ABRUPT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/5 KT. ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS
GENERAL HEADING THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEW
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/1500Z 18.6N 112.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 113.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 17/1200Z 19.5N 113.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/0000Z 19.9N 114.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/1200Z 20.0N 115.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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