ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102008 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008 ISELLE IS PRODUCING INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION...JUST ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WITH STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR FORECAST TO CONTINUE...ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT ISELLE HAS MADE AN ABRUPT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/5 KT. ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AS IT ENCOUNTERS EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 18.6N 112.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 113.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 17/1200Z 19.5N 113.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 18/0000Z 19.9N 114.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/1200Z 20.0N 115.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:40 UTC