Tropical Storm BORIS
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
200 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2008
BORIS IS WEAKENING QUICKLY. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 14Z SHOWED NO
BELIEVABLE VECTORS HIGHER THAN 50 KT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO
WARM TODAY AND THE EYE HAS FILLED IN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 50 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS. WITH SSTS NO HIGHER
THAN 24C ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK...A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED UNTIL BORIS DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...OR
LESS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8. AS BORIS DECAYS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...A RETURN TO A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IS
EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO MORE LOW-LEVEL STEERING. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE UKMET...MEDIUM BAM...AND SHALLOW BAM.
THESE MODELS ARE FASTER THAN MOST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 16.9N 127.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 17.3N 128.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 17.5N 129.8W 35 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 17.4N 130.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 17.2N 132.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/1800Z 16.5N 134.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 06/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/1800Z 14.5N 141.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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