Tropical Storm KAREN

ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007               
0300 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 157N  509W 34 62  16(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   1(80)
 12 157N  509W 50 16   7(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 12 157N  509W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
 24 169N  525W 34  5  40(45)   9(54)   2(56)   1(57)   X(57)   1(58)
 24 169N  525W 50  X  14(14)   3(17)   1(18)   X(18)   1(19)   1(20)
 24 169N  525W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 180N  538W 34  1  11(12)  20(32)   7(39)   3(42)   1(43)   1(44)
 36 180N  538W 50  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   X(12)   1(13)
 36 180N  538W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 192N  548W 34  X   3( 3)   9(12)  13(25)   6(31)   3(34)   1(35)
 48 192N  548W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
 48 192N  548W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
 
 72 210N  560W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)  12(21)   7(28)   2(30)
 72 210N  560W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)
 72 210N  560W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 225N  575W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   7(18)   4(22)
 96 225N  575W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 96 225N  575W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 
 
120 235N  595W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   4(15)
120 235N  595W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
120 235N  595W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     45      40      40      40      45      50
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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