Hurricane DEAN

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HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007
 
THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF
142 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 125 KT.  CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
RISING...THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS...AND THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
STRUCTURE.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE COULD BE SOME BROADENING OF
THE WIND FIELD WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AS THE CORE OF DEAN
APPROACHES JAMAICA...BUT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP WARM
WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16...WITH SOME EMBEDDED WOBBLES.  AS
THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD AHEAD OF DEAN...THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE CONTROLLED LARGELY BY A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 17.0N  75.1W   125 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 17.5N  77.7W   125 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 18.3N  81.2W   130 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 19.0N  84.5W   140 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 19.9N  88.2W   120 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.5N  95.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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