Tropical Depression KRISTY

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 AM PDT MON SEP 04 2006
 
KRISTY IS...AT BEST...A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS HAS AGAIN GENERATED SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND
JUST WEST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE T1.5...AND WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT.  EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES...
ALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.  HOWEVER...A STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY
PROLONGED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND IF KRISTY FOLLOWS THE
FORECAST TRACK IT WILL REACH THE 26C ISOTHERM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
BY RIGHTS...ONE BURST OF CONVECTION A DAY SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO
KEEP THIS SYSTEM CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT I'D LIKE TO
SEE THE PRESENT CONVECTION DISSIPATE BEFORE DECLARING KRISTY A
REMNANT LOW...POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC...MORE WESTWARD WHILE THE CONVECTION IS
ACTIVE AND MORE SOUTHWARD WHEN IT IS NOT.  THE ADVISORY MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 250/7.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS RECENTLY BEEN TOO FAST
TO THE WEST...PERHAPS GIVING THE SYSTEM CREDIT FOR MORE
ORGANIZATION THAN IT REALLY HAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER
THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE UKMET.
 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 16.7N 119.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 16.6N 119.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 16.7N 121.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 16.9N 122.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 17.2N 125.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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