ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 AM PDT MON SEP 04 2006 KRISTY IS...AT BEST...A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS AGAIN GENERATED SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T1.5...AND WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES... ALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...A STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY PROLONGED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND IF KRISTY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK IT WILL REACH THE 26C ISOTHERM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. BY RIGHTS...ONE BURST OF CONVECTION A DAY SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT I'D LIKE TO SEE THE PRESENT CONVECTION DISSIPATE BEFORE DECLARING KRISTY A REMNANT LOW...POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC...MORE WESTWARD WHILE THE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE AND MORE SOUTHWARD WHEN IT IS NOT. THE ADVISORY MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 250/7. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS RECENTLY BEEN TOO FAST TO THE WEST...PERHAPS GIVING THE SYSTEM CREDIT FOR MORE ORGANIZATION THAN IT REALLY HAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE UKMET. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 16.7N 119.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 16.6N 119.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 05/1200Z 16.7N 121.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 06/0000Z 16.9N 122.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 06/1200Z 17.2N 125.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC