Tropical Storm CARLOTTA

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TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006
 
CARLOTTA CONTINUES ITS WEAKENING TREND THIS EVENING..AND IS ALMOST
DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AS DEPICTED IN INFRARED IMAGERY.
EVEN THOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE
65 KT...THESE VALUES ARE DUE MOSTLY TO THE CONSTRAINTS OF THE
TECHNIQUE.  3-HOUR AVERAGED ODT NUMBERS YIELD INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AROUND 45 KT.  BASED UPON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF CARLOTTA HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KT.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
23 TO 24 DEGREES CELSIUS COMBINED WITH A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A DOWNWARD TREND TO A REMNANT
LOW IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
CARLOTTA IS MAINTAINING A WESTWARD MOTION AT 280/10.  AS THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...STEERING WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
MEAN FLOW ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
BASED UPON A SHIP...ELT27...LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF CARLOTTA...
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE MADE.
 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 19.7N 119.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 19.9N 121.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 20.1N 123.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 20.2N 125.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 20.2N 126.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
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