ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006 CARLOTTA CONTINUES ITS WEAKENING TREND THIS EVENING..AND IS ALMOST DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AS DEPICTED IN INFRARED IMAGERY. EVEN THOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...THESE VALUES ARE DUE MOSTLY TO THE CONSTRAINTS OF THE TECHNIQUE. 3-HOUR AVERAGED ODT NUMBERS YIELD INTENSITY ESTIMATES AROUND 45 KT. BASED UPON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF CARLOTTA HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23 TO 24 DEGREES CELSIUS COMBINED WITH A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A DOWNWARD TREND TO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. CARLOTTA IS MAINTAINING A WESTWARD MOTION AT 280/10. AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...STEERING WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LOW-LEVEL MEAN FLOW ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. BASED UPON A SHIP...ELT27...LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF CARLOTTA... ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE MADE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 19.7N 119.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 19.9N 121.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 20.1N 123.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 20.2N 125.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/0000Z 20.2N 126.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC