Tropical Storm CARLOTTA

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TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA HAS BECOME SEPERATED FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT CARLOTTA HAS SUCCUMED TO COOLER
WATERS AND STABLE AIR AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO
55 KT.  THE CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT CARLOTTA WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO REGENERATE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER...AND
WEAKENING IS SHOWN THROUGH 48 HOURS. CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/09.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK DUE TO A SMALL NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 19.4N 118.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 19.6N 120.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 19.8N 122.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 19.8N 124.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 19.8N 126.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
 
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