ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA HAS BECOME SEPERATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT CARLOTTA HAS SUCCUMED TO COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT. THE CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT CARLOTTA WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REGENERATE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER...AND WEAKENING IS SHOWN THROUGH 48 HOURS. CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/09. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK DUE TO A SMALL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 19.4N 118.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 19.6N 120.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 19.8N 122.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 19.8N 124.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 19.8N 126.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC