Hurricane GORDON

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
500 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006
 
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...THE APPEARANCE OF A RAGGED EYE IN POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A
0544 UTC CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 63 KT...SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT. GORDON HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF
SLIGHTLY IN ITS INTENSITY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
SHIPS CLOSELY AND BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 80 KT UNTIL GRADUAL
WEAKENING BEGINS...PROBABLY IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS...DUE TO
INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 010/7...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR
THE SHORT TERM...AS GORDON MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
RIGHT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW GORDON SLOWING DOWN BY DAY 2 OR 3 AS
THE DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE LIFTS OUT.
THE MOVEMENT OF GORDON BEYOND THAT POINT WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS SLOWS GORDON AT DAYS 3 AND 4
BEFORE MOVING IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS
SHOWS A MORE RAPID MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5. TO
COMPLICATE THINGS FURTHER...THE GFDL STALLS GORDON AND SHOWS ALMOST
NO MOTION FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER FROM DAY 3 ONWARD...TRENDING TOWARD THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 25.1N  57.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 26.4N  57.7W    75 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 28.1N  57.2W    80 KT
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 29.7N  56.5W    80 KT
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 30.9N  55.8W    80 KT
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 32.5N  54.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 34.0N  52.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     18/0600Z 36.5N  49.5W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB
 
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