Tropical Storm ERNESTO

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006               
0900 UTC THU AUG 31 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   9( 9)  13(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
RALEIGH NC     50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X  10(10)   7(17)   X(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X  34(34)   7(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   7( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  2  51(53)   3(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X  13(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  5  32(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
CHARLESTON SC  50  1   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 321N  795W 34 48  26(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 12 321N  795W 50 17   8(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 12 321N  795W 64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 346N  786W 34  X  33(33)   9(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 24 346N  786W 50  X   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 24 346N  786W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 370N  782W 34  X   2( 2)  12(14)   3(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 36 370N  782W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 370N  782W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 393N  785W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 48 393N  785W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 393N  785W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 445N  800W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 72 445N  800W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 445N  800W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     40      25      25      25       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN