Tropical Storm ALBERTO

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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
500 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

AFTER THE SUDDEN STRENGTHENING EPISODE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY...THE
STORM HAS LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY.  THE LAST FIX FROM THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS HOLDING NEAR
997 MB AND THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 67 KT...SO THE
INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AT 60 KT.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER ELONGATED.  THE STORM HAS LEFT THE
AREA OF HIGHEST OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...I.E. THE GULF OF MEXICO LOOP
CURRENT...BEHIND.  NONETHELESS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM EARLY ON TUESDAY.

ALBERTO'S FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT...TO ABOUT 9 KT.  A
500 MB TROUGH NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
WITHIN THIS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINS...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH
ALBERTO WILL LIKELY BE STORM SURGE FLOODING...WHICH COULD BE 8-10
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS EVEN FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN
THIS AREA.  IT IS...HOWEVER...IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY EXACTLY WHICH
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST STORM SURGE FLOODING BECAUSE
THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE TRACK AND WIND FIELD NEAR
LANDFALL.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 27.9N  85.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 28.9N  84.1W    65 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 30.4N  83.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 32.1N  81.9W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 34.0N  80.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 37.0N  72.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 42.0N  65.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     17/1800Z 47.0N  57.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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