Hurricane MAX
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TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2005
A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS FROM 0251Z SHOWED SOME VECTORS NEAR 35 KT...SO
THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM ON THIS
ADVISORY. MAX STILL HAS A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER COOL WATERS...AND BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN A DAY OR SO. IF NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
RETURN TO THE SYSTEM...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TODAY.
MAX HAS TURNED TO A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST HEADING...AND INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 260/4. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...AS
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MAX IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ILL-DEFINED.
DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS CALL FOR A SLOW...BUT INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTWARD COMPONENT OF...MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BEYOND DAY 3...THERE IS MUCH DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK MODELS. GIVEN
THESE UNCERTAINTIES...AND THE LACK OF DEFINITIVE STEERING
FEATURES...THE SYSTEM IS HELD STATIONARY AT DAYS 3-5...AS IN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECASTS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0900Z 21.7N 121.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 21.6N 122.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 21.4N 123.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 23/1800Z 21.1N 124.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 24/0600Z 20.7N 124.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 26/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 27/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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