ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2005 A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS FROM 0251Z SHOWED SOME VECTORS NEAR 35 KT...SO THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. MAX STILL HAS A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER COOL WATERS...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. IF NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION RETURN TO THE SYSTEM...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. MAX HAS TURNED TO A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST HEADING...AND INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 260/4. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MAX IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ILL-DEFINED. DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS CALL FOR A SLOW...BUT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTWARD COMPONENT OF...MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND DAY 3...THERE IS MUCH DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK MODELS. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...AND THE LACK OF DEFINITIVE STEERING FEATURES...THE SYSTEM IS HELD STATIONARY AT DAYS 3-5...AS IN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECASTS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 21.7N 121.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 21.6N 122.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 21.4N 123.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 23/1800Z 21.1N 124.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 24/0600Z 20.7N 124.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 26/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 27/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Sep-2005 08:40:23 UTC