Hurricane FERNANDA

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TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005
 
FERNANDA CONTINUES TO BE RESILIENT WITH A RECENT BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  BASED ON THIS
TREND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT...WHICH IS ALSO A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT AND 55 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. DESPITE THE DEEPER CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER...FERNANDA'S CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED
AND HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS
INDICATES THE WEAKENING TREND MAY RESUME WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS ESPECIALLY AS SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE TOMORROW.
ADDITIONALLY...A RECENT SSMI PASS INDICATED DRY AIR BEGINNING TO
ENTRAIN INTO FERNANDA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...IMPLYING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT...WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THESE FACTORS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO IMPART SLOW WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH FERNANDA IS
EXPECTED TO NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM THROUGH THE
FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS
SLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY  BASED ON THE
RECENT DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE PATTEN AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. 
  
FERNANDA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250/08.  THIS OVERALL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A DEEP
STRUCTURE...KEEPING IT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW. THEREAFTER...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT CYCLONE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM THAT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 17.8N 131.4W    60 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.9N 133.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.4N 135.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 16.1N 136.7W    45 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 15.7N 140.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 15.5N 143.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 15.5N 147.0W    45 KT
 
 
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