ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005 FERNANDA CONTINUES TO BE RESILIENT WITH A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THIS TREND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT...WHICH IS ALSO A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. DESPITE THE DEEPER CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...FERNANDA'S CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AND HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS INDICATES THE WEAKENING TREND MAY RESUME WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY AS SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE TOMORROW. ADDITIONALLY...A RECENT SSMI PASS INDICATED DRY AIR BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO FERNANDA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...IMPLYING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT...WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THESE FACTORS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO IMPART SLOW WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM THROUGH THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE RECENT DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE PATTEN AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. FERNANDA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250/08. THIS OVERALL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A DEEP STRUCTURE...KEEPING IT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THEREAFTER...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT CYCLONE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 17.8N 131.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W 55 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.9N 133.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.4N 135.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 16.1N 136.7W 45 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 15.7N 140.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 15.5N 143.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 15.5N 147.0W 45 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 15-Aug-2005 02:40:13 UTC