Tropical Depression NINE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS DEVELOPED A NEW AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IT CONTINUES
TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR ON ITS WESTERN EDGE.  THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE
MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH FOR NOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06.  WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY 
MOVING DUE WEST...IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE IS BUILDING TO ITS
NORTH...PREVENTING ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD MOTION.  MUCH OF THE NHC
GUIDANCE TAKES THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD INTO THE RIDGE WHILE THE
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AGREEING ON A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SENDS THE SYSTEM
ON A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AROUND 26/1800Z...AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BEARS DOWN ON THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE.

ALL BUT ONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS...ALONG WITH THE GFDL...KEEP THE
SYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK ALSO
KEEPS THE DEPRESSION IN WATERS COOLER THAN 26C.  THEREFORE...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS SYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CLARK
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 18.6N 125.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 18.6N 126.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 18.6N 127.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 18.5N 129.4W    30 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.4N 131.3W    30 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 18.1N 134.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 17.8N 138.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/1800Z 17.4N 142.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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