ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 2 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004 THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS DEVELOPED A NEW AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IT CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR ON ITS WESTERN EDGE. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH FOR NOW. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING DUE WEST...IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE IS BUILDING TO ITS NORTH...PREVENTING ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD MOTION. MUCH OF THE NHC GUIDANCE TAKES THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD INTO THE RIDGE WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREEING ON A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SENDS THE SYSTEM ON A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AROUND 26/1800Z...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BEARS DOWN ON THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. ALL BUT ONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS...ALONG WITH THE GFDL...KEEP THE SYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK ALSO KEEPS THE DEPRESSION IN WATERS COOLER THAN 26C. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS SYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLARK FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 18.6N 125.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 18.6N 126.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 18.6N 127.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 18.5N 129.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 18.4N 131.3W 30 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 18.1N 134.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/1800Z 17.8N 138.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/1800Z 17.4N 142.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Aug-2004 20:43:21 UTC