Hurricane FRANK

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HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2004
 
FRANK HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS AN EYE HAS BECOME
APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED A DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM TAFB AT 18Z...3-HR
AVERAGE ODT VALUES OF T3.8...OR 61 KT...AND THE EYE FEATURE THAT
HAS PERSISTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE THE 18Z OBSERVATIONS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12.  FRANK HAS REMAINED ON TRACK...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS CONTINUED TO KEY IN MORE ON WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE-E LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF FRANK. THAT
CIRCULATION BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM...WHICH FORCES
FRANK NORTHWESTWARD ALMOST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN
THAT FRANK IS STRONGER AND AT LEAST THE SAME SIZE AS TD-9E...MY
FEELING IS THAT FRANK WILL STEER TD-9E...AND NOT THE OTHER WAY
AROUND. AS SUCH...FRANK IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO
TD-9E...OWING TO BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE DEPRESSION...AND ALSO
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
AFTER THAT...FRANK WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BE FORCED WESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWARD BY 72HOURS.
 
FRANK HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE ANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO SLOW DOWN THAT PROCESS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS
AND THE HURRICANE HAS A SMALL...TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND
DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN. BY 36 HOURS...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER SUB-26C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS.  HOWEVER...AS WE SAW WITH HURRICANE DARBY EARLIER THIS
YEAR...26C WATER IS NOT A BARRIER TO A HURRICANE REACHING MAJOR
INTENSITY... AND FRANK COULD PEAK NEAR 100 KT BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36
HOUR TIME PERIODS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...FRANK IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER SUB-24C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING.

FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 18.4N 113.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 19.2N 114.2W    75 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 20.3N 116.0W    90 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 21.3N 117.8W    85 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 22.0N 119.6W    75 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 22.5N 123.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 23.0N 126.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 23.5N 129.5W    30 KT
 
 
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