ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2004 FRANK HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM TAFB AT 18Z...3-HR AVERAGE ODT VALUES OF T3.8...OR 61 KT...AND THE EYE FEATURE THAT HAS PERSISTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE THE 18Z OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12. FRANK HAS REMAINED ON TRACK...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO KEY IN MORE ON WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF FRANK. THAT CIRCULATION BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM...WHICH FORCES FRANK NORTHWESTWARD ALMOST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THAT FRANK IS STRONGER AND AT LEAST THE SAME SIZE AS TD-9E...MY FEELING IS THAT FRANK WILL STEER TD-9E...AND NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND. AS SUCH...FRANK IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO TD-9E...OWING TO BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE DEPRESSION...AND ALSO DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH. AFTER THAT...FRANK WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BE FORCED WESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWARD BY 72HOURS. FRANK HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO SLOW DOWN THAT PROCESS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE HURRICANE HAS A SMALL...TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN. BY 36 HOURS...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW WITH HURRICANE DARBY EARLIER THIS YEAR...26C WATER IS NOT A BARRIER TO A HURRICANE REACHING MAJOR INTENSITY... AND FRANK COULD PEAK NEAR 100 KT BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36 HOUR TIME PERIODS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...FRANK IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB-24C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 18.4N 113.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 19.2N 114.2W 75 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 20.3N 116.0W 90 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 21.3N 117.8W 85 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 22.0N 119.6W 75 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 22.5N 123.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 27/1800Z 23.0N 126.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 28/1800Z 23.5N 129.5W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Aug-2004 20:43:18 UTC