Tropical Depression SIX-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 02 2004
 
SHORTWARE IR AND LONGWAVE IR IMAGERY STILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E...WITH CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
WEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED SO THE CYCLONE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KTS.
 
SHIPS INDICATES SLOW STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE
EARLY FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARMER SSTS.  HOWEVER...LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO COOL
WATERS AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.
 
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER SISKO/ROBERTS/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 12.4N 130.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 12.9N 131.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 13.8N 133.4W    40 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 14.7N 135.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 15.3N 137.2W    50 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N 141.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     07/1200Z 16.5N 149.0W    35 KT
 
 
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