ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON AUG 02 2004 SHORTWARE IR AND LONGWAVE IR IMAGERY STILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E...WITH CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED SO THE CYCLONE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KTS. SHIPS INDICATES SLOW STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE EARLY FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARMER SSTS. HOWEVER...LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO COOL WATERS AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER SISKO/ROBERTS/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 12.4N 130.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 12.9N 131.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 13.8N 133.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 14.7N 135.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 15.3N 137.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 141.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 07/1200Z 16.5N 149.0W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 02-Aug-2004 14:52:36 UTC