Hurricane CELIA

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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUL 22 2004
 
DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES WERE DOWN A HALF AT 12Z...AND
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING.  IT IS LIKELY THAT CELIA'S
INTENSITY HAS ALREADY REACHED ITS PEAK.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY
COOLER WATERS. IN 36-48 HOURS CELIA WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED THE 25
DEG C SST ISOTHERM...AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING MORE RAPIDLY.
 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED POSITION AND IS MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST...
275/5.  IN ADDITION TO THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE...A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO
THE WEST OF CELIA MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PERSISTENT SLOW
FORWARD SPEED.  WHEN CELIA WEAKENS...THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD
INCREASE AS LOWER-LEVEL STEERING BEGINS TO DOMINATE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
IN RESPONSE TO THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST 12-18
HOURS...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH UKMET TRENDS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 16.3N 122.4W    65 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 16.4N 123.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 16.7N 124.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 17.0N 126.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 17.3N 128.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N 132.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N 136.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     27/1200Z 17.5N 140.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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