ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU JUL 22 2004 DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES WERE DOWN A HALF AT 12Z...AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING. IT IS LIKELY THAT CELIA'S INTENSITY HAS ALREADY REACHED ITS PEAK. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS. IN 36-48 HOURS CELIA WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED THE 25 DEG C SST ISOTHERM...AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING MORE RAPIDLY. MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED POSITION AND IS MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST... 275/5. IN ADDITION TO THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF CELIA MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PERSISTENT SLOW FORWARD SPEED. WHEN CELIA WEAKENS...THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD INCREASE AS LOWER-LEVEL STEERING BEGINS TO DOMINATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN RESPONSE TO THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH UKMET TRENDS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 16.3N 122.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 16.4N 123.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 16.7N 124.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 17.0N 126.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 17.3N 128.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 17.5N 132.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 17.5N 136.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 27/1200Z 17.5N 140.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Jul-2004 14:42:24 UTC