Tropical Storm AGATHA

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN MAY 23 2004
 
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING WHILE BEING
SHEARED TO THE EAST.  AGATHA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KNOT DEPRESSION
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES.  THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN UNDER SHEARING CONDITIONS AND OVER
SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/04 BASED ON THE PAST 24 HOURS OF
MOTION.  THE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT WITH THE GFDL AND UKMET SHOWING A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...THE GFS HAS A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK...AND THE NOGAPS TRACK IS TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  WHAT
THEY ALL HAVE IN COMMON IS A VERY SLOW MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONCENSUS OF THE ABOVE MODELS BY BECOMING
STATIONARY IN 24 HOURS.


FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 18.6N 110.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 19.5N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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