ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN MAY 23 2004 THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING WHILE BEING SHEARED TO THE EAST. AGATHA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KNOT DEPRESSION BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN UNDER SHEARING CONDITIONS AND OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/04 BASED ON THE PAST 24 HOURS OF MOTION. THE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT WITH THE GFDL AND UKMET SHOWING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...THE GFS HAS A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...AND THE NOGAPS TRACK IS TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WHAT THEY ALL HAVE IN COMMON IS A VERY SLOW MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONCENSUS OF THE ABOVE MODELS BY BECOMING STATIONARY IN 24 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 18.6N 110.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 25/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 25/1200Z 19.5N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 26/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W 15 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Jul-2004 17:31:57 UTC