Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Storm PATRICIA


ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162003
0900Z TUE OCT 21 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 103.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  25SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 103.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 102.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 11.3N 104.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  25SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 12.0N 105.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.6N 107.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.3N 108.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 20.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 103.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
NNNN