ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162003 0900Z TUE OCT 21 2003 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 103.0W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 103.0W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 102.6W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 11.3N 104.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 12.0N 105.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.6N 107.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.3N 108.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 20.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 103.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z FORECASTER LAWRENCE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:28 UTC