Hurricane OLAF

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TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003

CUYUTLAN RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST NOT
FAR FROM MANZANILLO AROUND 0700 UTC.  THE RADAR DATA ALSO SHOWED AN
EYEWALL STRUCTURE SO...AFTER REORGANIZING...OLAF WAS CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN UP UNTIL LANDFALL.  SINCE THE CENTER IS NOW OVER LAND
...AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...WEAKENING SHOULD TAKE PLACE.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OLAF
WILL BE MOVING OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THIS COULD RESULT IN EVEN
FASTER WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH...350/5.  OLAF IS
BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW TO THE
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A
LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE GFS AND MEDIUM BAM TRACK.  THE U.K. MET
OFFICE MODEL TRACK IS SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER WEST...AND SHOWS OLAF
MOVING BACK OVER WATER IN 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A PROBLEM
WITH THE VORTEX TRACKER FOR THAT MODEL...AS IT APPEARS TO LOSE OLAF
WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND THEN JUMPS TO THE CENTER POSITION OF NEARBY
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA.  

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 19.3N 104.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 20.2N 104.8W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 21.5N 105.1W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 23.0N 105.5W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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