ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003 CUYUTLAN RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST NOT FAR FROM MANZANILLO AROUND 0700 UTC. THE RADAR DATA ALSO SHOWED AN EYEWALL STRUCTURE SO...AFTER REORGANIZING...OLAF WAS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN UP UNTIL LANDFALL. SINCE THE CENTER IS NOW OVER LAND ...AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WEAKENING SHOULD TAKE PLACE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OLAF WILL BE MOVING OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THIS COULD RESULT IN EVEN FASTER WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH...350/5. OLAF IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE GFS AND MEDIUM BAM TRACK. THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL TRACK IS SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER WEST...AND SHOWS OLAF MOVING BACK OVER WATER IN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A PROBLEM WITH THE VORTEX TRACKER FOR THAT MODEL...AS IT APPEARS TO LOSE OLAF WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND THEN JUMPS TO THE CENTER POSITION OF NEARBY TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 19.3N 104.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 20.2N 104.8W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 08/0600Z 21.5N 105.1W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 105.5W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC