Hurricane IGNACIO

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TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2003

THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT BEST ESTIMATE USING
GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHERN BAJA SUGGEST THAT IT IS INLAND
AND MOVING 310/3.  THE CIRCULATION IS WEAKENING QUICKLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND EVEN IF
IGNACIO EMERGES OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA...THE WATERS THERE ARE
TOO COOL TO ALLOW REGENERATION.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY VERY WELL
DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 

A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN...THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 25.0N 111.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 25.2N 111.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 25.6N 111.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 26.0N 112.4W    30 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 26.5N 113.0W    25 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 27.5N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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